27th October 2011

Many people believe it was just a matter of time before crime started rising again.  Unfortunately that prophecy is coming true.

Crime fell for 16 years but according to the British Crime Survey levels are increasing.  The BCS, as its name suggests is a huge survey giving victims the opportunity to record their experiences.  The second way of measuring crime is Police Recorded Crime.  Trends are often similar but now there’s a divergence – perhaps because fewer police officers, due to police cuts, are recording fewer crimes.

Now the British Crime Survey is showing a 10% increase in domestic burglary.  Other acquisitive crimes such as shoplifting, and those most associated with an economic downturn, are also on the up.  It won’t do for Ministers to dismiss the figures as “not statistically significant”.  Try telling that to the victims.

Why crime increases or, for that matter, falls is often complex.  There has traditionally been a link between recessions and crime – but in 2008-9 for the first time in a recession, crime continued to fall.  Now there is anecdotal evidence of more serious acquisitive crimes being committed by first time offenders rather than the usual conveyor belt from petty to more serious crime.  There’s also anecdotal evidence of more shoplifting when food prices are high and wages and benefits are being cut.  None of this excuses criminality but it might explain it.

In the last recession we had a record number of police officers.  The government and police were on the front foot with anti-burglary initiatives and a focus on persistent offenders.  Now police numbers are being cut – here in Northumbria by more than previously announced.  That is precisely the wrong thing to do.